Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026?

Question

Derivative of this question, using the same criteria (except for the date):

(https://manifold.markets/embed/tempo/will-hans-niemann-be-a-top-10-chess?play=true)If the linked question resolves YES at any time before the end of market close, this market resolves YES. If the market closes and the conditions for the linked question are not fulfilled, resolves NO.

Since this is a very objective market, I will bet on it.

Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The December 2026 FIDE rating list will be the definitive source for resolution, even if it is published after the market closes (e.g., in January 2027).

If it is clear Hans will not be in the top 10 by the end of 2026, the market may resolve NO immediately at its close time. Otherwise, resolution will wait for the official FIDE list.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (29 traders, as of Oct 1, 2026).