Will Tontine ever pay out?

Question

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-3-25, 493 players remain.

The market resolves YES if/when the central pot is paid out. It resolves NO if/when the game is canceled for any reason, or if the central pot does not pay out by the end of 2099, which will stand in for "effectively never".

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 88% chance (24 traders, as of Jul 19, 2025).