Will Lorxus, the author of this market, be a winner of Tontine?

Question

https://tontine.cash/ is a MSCHF game. On 2021-12-27, 7141 players each paid $10 into a central pot and have been required to check in at least once a day by midnight EST/EDT or else be eliminated. The last remaining player will win the pot. As of 2023-3-25, 493 players remain.

The market resolves YES if Lorxus, a currently surviving player in the Tontine, wins Tontine, and NO if they lose the game at any point, due to forgetting, user error, and/or failure of any safeguards. It resolves N/A if the game is canceled for any reason, and YES if Lorxus intentionally technically loses Tontine as part of a negotiated agreement in which they receive their accepted allotment of the final split.

The supposed close date is a placeholder; the market will almost surely resolve early.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 35% chance (26 traders, as of Nov 7, 2025).