Who will win the 2026 Senate Election in Texas?

Question

Resolution criteria

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026. The winner will be determined by the candidate who receives the most votes in the general election. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The market resolves to whichever candidate wins the general election. Results can be verified at Texas Secretary of State Elections Division or major news outlets covering the election results.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, James Talarico, followed by Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are most likely. See the market for live updates (132 traders, as of May 18, 2026).