Will GPT-5 destroy the world?

Question

OpenAI has stated that they are not currently training GPT-5, however it seems likely that they will at some point in the future. AI models are predicted to possibly wipe out humanity. This question asks, if OpenAI releases a model named GPT-5, will it wipe out humanity? It resolves positive if humanity is destroyed by GPT-5  (directly or indirectly) within 1 year of its release, and negative otherwise.

Note: I will extend the closing date if GPT-5 has not been released by Dec 31,2024

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (21 traders, as of Jan 29, 2026).