Will a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2030?

Question

This market will resolve YES if any elecrical appliance, computer, or other device is commercially available by Jan 1, 2030, which incorporates superconductors that operate at ambient pressure above 0C without requiring active cooling (may be LK-99 or some other chemistry).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (19 traders, as of Aug 10, 2025).