Which companies will be in the Top 10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2026?

Question

This question will be resolved accordingly to the data from https://companiesmarketcap.com/ on January 1st 2027 at 12:00 UTC. (If the page had some technical failures, I'd adjust this time accordingly or change the source.)

This question will not be affected by any name changes.

If companies merge with another company, the new company will be taken into account. I.e. if Microsoft and Apple were to merge, 11 companies would resolve YES, and both Microsoft and Apple would resolve YES.

In the case of a split, both splits will count for the future of the question, but the larger split will be checked at the end of the year. For example, if Meta splits into Facebook and Instagram and neither of these two companies is in the Top 10, the question will resolve as NO.

This question will close on December 31, 2026, at 23:59 UTC.

If you have any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Microsoft, followed by NVIDIA and Alphabet (Google) are most likely. See the market for live updates (22 traders, as of May 4, 2026).