Will more than 30 doctors be criminally charged for providing life/health of the mother abortion-related care by 2030?

Question

Sparked by the attempt to formalize a disagreement between me and an Other Feminisms reader. Our original bet (which she is taking at 70% odds) is:

By the end of 2030, more than 30 doctors will be charged for violating a criminal statute related to providing abortion-related care. These charges count for our bet specifically if the doctor (or hospital) claims the sanctioned care was necessary to preserve the life or health of the mother.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 33% chance (5 traders, as of Jan 9, 2026).