Will Yann LeCun "win" his AI x-risk debate with Max Tegmark?

Question

On June 22nd, Munk Debates will be hosting a debate between Max Tegmark and Yann LeCun on the following subject:

Be it resolved, AI research and development poses an existential threat.

Max is taking the "Pro" side and Yann is taking the "Con" side.

[link preview]Munk Debates does a poll of the audience before and after each debate. The debaters are then judged based on how many people in the audience (on net) changed their minds from "Pro" to "Con" or vice-versa. You can see some examples from their previous debates on their debates page.

Note that this doesn't require a majority of the audience to agree with the winner! If the initial poll shows 10% Pro/90% Con, and the final poll shows 15% Pro/85% Con, then the "Pro" side is considered the winner since it had a 5% vote gain!

This market resolves "Yes" if Munk Debates pronounces Yann LeCun the winner for shifting the audience's net opinions further to the "Con" side. It resolves "No" in the case of a draw or if Max Tegmark is pronounced the winner.

This market will close at the currently-scheduled end of the debate (8:45 PM Eastern time), in case folks want to evaluate the arguments live and predict how they might sway the audience. This may mean that the results could be announced before this market fully closes, but I think that's an okay tradeoff.

This market will resolve sometime after the final results are announced, possibly with a delay to allow me the time to look up the results and resolve it. (I may not be able to watch it live.)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jun 27, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.