I believe Eliezer has the best overall understanding of the issues related to alignment.

This will only resolve if Eliezer charitably engages with my claims.

If he does, this will only resolve yes if, after review, his new p(doom) is < 0.1.  (10%)

It will only resolve yes with Eliezer's consent.

It will resolve no if Eliezer compels me to understand why Krantz isn't a solution to alignment within the krantz demonstration mechanism OR spends 45 mins charitably speaking with me at Manifest 2025 about my claims contained in the demonstration mechanism.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qqCdphfBdHxPzHFgt/how-to-avoid-death-by-ai?utm_campaign=post_share&utm_source=link

Update:  Due to integrity and logistic concerns in the comments, the above prediction will resolve N/A on Jan 1st 2030. 

The primary markets requiring engagement are: