I believe Eliezer has the best overall understanding of the issues related to alignment.

This will only resolve if Eliezer looks at my algorithm.

If he does, this will only resolve yes if, after review, his new p(doom) is < 0.1.  (10%)

It will only resolve yes with Eliezer's consent.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qqCdphfBdHxPzHFgt/how-to-avoid-death-by-ai?utm_campaign=post_share&utm_source=link

Update:  Due to integrity and logistic concerns in the comments, the above prediction will resolve N/A on Jan 1st 2026.  Also, I will no longer bet this market above 2%.