1) Official independence declaration takes place.

3) Kadyrov (or any head of Chechnya at the moment) refuses to recognise Putin (or any president at the moment) as a valid president.

There might be some other currently unpredictable event causing YES resolution, but it has to be confrontation of some kind (disalignment of interests) and have implications for the Chechnya region or its part.

1) The war ends first and nothing undermining cooperation in Russia-Chechnya relations happens.

If the war is not ended by the closing date, then the closing date is pushed +2years.

Within the market the state at which Russia and Ukraine were between 2014 and the invasion is considered a war.

The war is considered ended if both sides' officials claim it did end and they do not show concerns the conflict starts again within 2 years.

If rebellion started it has to be more than just Prigoshin's one day rally. Bigger consequences. 