The transfer of power happens normally. Trump is sworn in without incident in Jan 20 2025, similar to 2016.

A significant contingent of democrats claim the election was stolen/fraudulent (similar to R's "stop the steal" movement in 2016). (Example: vote tampering, foreign involvement, ...)

At least one major mainstream newspaper op-ed or headline casts doubt on the legitimacy of the election results

Trump is not sworn in due to some medical emergency.

Significant riot or disruption occurs on or before inauguration day (Example: a democrats' version of the Jan 6 events, or upheaval at any state capitol in relation to the election).

Trump resigns voluntarily before inauguration

Answers will be resolved according to my subjective judgment of reporting by at least one major mainstream news source. Market closes on inauguration day. I won't bet on this market.

Please don't add meme answers. I may resolve these as N/A at my discretion.