AWS stops offering Anthropic models to US customers via Amazon Bedrock before May 1, 2026

Question

To win this either needs to be "all Anthropic models", or models that are in very popular use - as of February 28, Claude 4.6, Opus 4.6 would certainly qualify.

Note Amazon offers both a "US" and a "global" version of most Anthropic models. Both are accessible to US customers. I am not sure the differences between these. But if US customers are still able to access the "global" version from the US that will not be sufficient to resolve YES.

If Amazon removes/retires older Anthropic models (something they routinely do) this question will not resolve YES. If Amazon temporarily stops offering a new popular model because it is too popular and they cannot scale to match demand, that will not be sufficient to resolve YES.

The goal of the question is to resolve YES if and only if Amazon caves to DOD's threats about Anthropic being a supply chain risk.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (30 traders, as of Apr 14, 2026).