Will the Chinese Government misuse Vanguard before 2050?

Question

Vanguard is an anti-cheat system recently added to League of Legends developed by Riot Games. Tencent, a major Chinese conglomerate, owns Riot Games. Chinese law requires companies operating within its jurisdiction, including conglomerates like Tencent, to comply with government mandates on matters such as national security, data access and censorship.

Misuse against non-Chinese Nationals. What they do to their own is their business.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/will-anything-be-done-about-tencent)(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/will-any-anticheat-programs-be-misu)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 37% chance (1 traders, as of Jan 26, 2025).