Will CNSA successfully return 2 kg of rocks and soil from far side of the moon with the Chang’e-6 lunar probe?

Question

https://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c10523137/content.html

Return means to Earth in a state that can be used for science. kg = Kilograms. 1 kg = 1,000 grams.

Chang'e-5 brought back approximately 1,731 grams of lunar samples which included regolith (soil) and basaltic rocks.

Resolves Yes if Chang'e-6 successfully returns both rocks and soil totaling at least 2 kg,

Resolves 50% if Chang'e-6 returns either rocks OR soil, or both, but the total mass is less than 2 kg

Resolves No if Chang'e-6 is unable to return any samples or samples returned aren't usable for science

Inspired by Sailfish

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Sailfish/will-cnsas-change-6-mission-success-bb4982b56723)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jun 27, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.