This question resolves based on the TIME Magazine 2024 Person of The Year. You can see all previous winners 

If the POTY is anyone or anything like Biden, Trump, SCOTUS, etc this resolves to the first option. If the POTY is anyone or anything like ChatGPT, OpenAI, Elon Musk, etc then it resolves to the second option. If the POTY is not particularly related to either, such as Taylor Swift, then this market resolves to the third option. 

 currently seems very confident that the winner will be related to either the election or to AI. Is this true? 