John Wilkes Booth, just as he's sneaking up on Lincoln in 1865

'1865':13 'booth':3 'john':1 'lincoln':11 'sneak':8 'wilk':2

Adolf Hitler, during the Berlin Olympics in 1936

'1936':8 'adolf':1 'berlin':5 'hitler':2 'olymp':6

Ronald Reagan, as he lays his hand on the Bible to take the oath of office in 1981

'1981':18 'bibl':10 'hand':7 'lay':5 'oath':14 'offic':16 'reagan':2 'ronald':1 'take':12

Steve Jobs, as Wozniak shows him the design of the Apple 1 in 1976

'1':12 '1976':14 'appl':11 'design':8 'job':2 'show':5 'steve':1 'wozniak':4

JRR Tolkien, telling The Hobbit to his children as a bedtime story in 1930

'1930':14 'bedtim':11 'children':8 'hobbit':5 'jrr':1 'stori':12 'tell':3 'tolkien':2

Alan Turing, in the middle of writing his paper “On computable numbers” in 1936

'1936':14 'alan':1 'comput':11 'middl':5 'number':12 'paper':9 'ture':2 'write':7

Stephen Hawking, at his time travelers party in 2009

'2009':9 'hawk':2 'parti':7 'stephen':1 'time':5 'travel':6

George W. Bush on September 20, 2001, as he declares the “War on Terror,” launching the US Military into decades of lost and ruined lives.

'20':6 '2001':7 'bush':3 'decad':20 'declar':10 'georg':1 'launch':15 'live':25 'lost':22 'militari':18 'ruin':24 'septemb':5 'terror':14 'us':17 'w':2 'war':12

Lee Harvey Oswald, right before someone else shoots JFK

'els':7 'harvey':2 'jfk':9 'lee':1 'oswald':3 'right':4 'shoot':8 'someon':6

Christopher Columbus in 1492, just before he sails the ocean blue

'1492':4 'blue':11 'christoph':1 'columbus':2 'ocean':10 'sail':8

'11':5 '2001':6 'donald':1 'septemb':4 'trump':2

Lee Harvey Oswald, but it's just *after* he shot Kennedy.

'harvey':2 'kennedi':11 'lee':1 'oswald':3 'shot':10

Putin on New Year's Eve 1999, to save Chechen, Syrian, Georgian, Ukrainian lives (and god knows who next)

'1999':7 'chechen':10 'eve':6 'georgian':12 'god':16 'know':17 'live':14 'new':3 'next':19 'putin':1 'save':9 'syrian':11 'ukrainian':13 'year':4

Mitochondrial Eve, just before having her first child

'child':8 'eve':2 'first':7 'mitochondri':1

Donald Trump, right before he starts his 2016 campaign

'2016':8 'campaign':9 'donald':1 'right':3 'start':6 'trump':2

Gavrilo Princip as he is about to kill Ferdinand d'Este

'd':10 'est':11 'ferdinand':9 'gavrilo':1 'kill':8 'princip':2

'6000':3 'ago':5 'demiurg':2 'le':1 'year':4

Stanislav Petrov, Soviet nuclear early warning officer, on his way to work in the morning of 26 September 1983, before refusing to launch nuclear retaliation based on false alert.

'1983':19 '26':17 'alert':29 'base':26 'earli':5 'fals':28 'launch':23 'morn':15 'nuclear':4,24 'offic':7 'petrov':2 'refus':21 'retali':25 'septemb':18 'soviet':3 'stanislav':1 'warn':6 'way':10 'work':12

Rosa Parks, on her way to the bus stop before 6 pm on Thursday, December 1, 1955

'1':16 '1955':17 '6':11 'bus':8 'decemb':15 'park':2 'pm':12 'rosa':1 'stop':9 'thursday':14 'way':5

Henrietta Lacks, just before unknowingly contributing to a pivotal moment in medical history when her cells were taken without her consent during a biopsy at Johns Hopkins Hospital on January 29, 1951.

'1951':32 '29':31 'biopsi':24 'cell':16 'consent':21 'contribut':6 'henrietta':1 'histori':13 'hopkin':27 'hospit':28 'januari':30 'john':26 'lack':2 'medic':12 'moment':10 'pivot':9 'taken':18 'unknow':5 'without':19

Vasily Arkhipov, onboard Soviet B-29 submarine near Cuba, in the morning of 27 October 1962 before refusing to authorize launch of nuclear missiles.

'-29':6 '1962':16 '27':14 'arkhipov':2 'author':20 'b':5 'cuba':9 'launch':21 'missil':24 'morn':12 'near':8 'nuclear':23 'octob':15 'onboard':3 'refus':18 'soviet':4 'submarin':7 'vasili':1

The operators of the Time Traveling Trolley before they board the vehicle, creating a time paradox. 

'board':10 'creat':13 'oper':2 'paradox':16 'time':5,15 'travel':6 'trolley':7 'vehicl':12

Elon musk, immediately before his purchase of Twitter

'elon':1 'immedi':3 'musk':2 'purchas':6 'twitter':8

The first human to set foot on Mars, before they do so

'first':2 'foot':6 'human':3 'mar':8 'set':5

Yoko Ono, one hour before she meets John Lennon

'hour':4 'john':8 'lennon':9 'meet':7 'one':3 'ono':2 'yoko':1

Jim Jones, three hours before he kills Congressman Leo Ryan and instructs his cult to drink poisoned Flavor Aid.

'aid':19 'congressman':8 'cult':14 'drink':16 'flavor':18 'hour':4 'instruct':12 'jim':1 'jone':2 'kill':7 'leo':9 'poison':17 'ryan':10 'three':3

Franz Ferdinand, the day before he was killed

Osama bin Laden, during his time in Oxford, England in 1971

'1971':11 'bin':2 'england':9 'laden':3 'osama':1 'oxford':8 'time':6

'2000':4 'bern':6 'jong':2 'kim':1 'switzerland':7 'un':3

Xi Jinping, during his visit at the White House (Obama/Biden), February 2012

'2012':12 'februari':11 'hous':9 'jinp':2 'obama/biden':10 'visit':5 'white':8 'xi':1

Joseph Stalin on 20th January 1924, the day before Lenin died 

'1924':6 '20th':4 'day':8 'die':11 'januari':5 'joseph':1 'lenin':10 'stalin':2

Vladimir Zelensky on 19 May 2019, the day before he took office as President of Ukraine

'19':4 '2019':6 'day':8 'may':5 'offic':12 'presid':14 'took':11 'ukrain':16 'vladimir':1 'zelenski':2

Sam Altman, right before he joined OpenAI

'altman':2 'join':6 'openai':7 'right':3 'sam':1

Muhammad in 613, right before he began preaching

'613':3 'began':7 'muhammad':1 'preach':8 'right':4

Mary, the mother of Jesus, right before her 13th birthday

'13th':9 'birthday':10 'jesus':5 'mari':1 'mother':3 'right':6

'bradi':2 'call':8 'right':3 'rule':7 'tom':1 'tuck':6

'long':6 'mao':1 'march':7 'right':3 'zedong':2

Martin Luther right before he writes his 95 thesis

'95':8 'luther':2 'martin':1 'right':3 'thesi':9 'write':6

Pope Innocent III right before calling the 4th crusade

'4th':8 'call':6 'crusad':9 'iii':3 'innoc':2 'pope':1 'right':4

Fritz Haber in 1894, before creating the Haber process to manufacture ammonia and before aiding in chemical weapons development in WWI

'1894':4 'aid':15 'ammonia':12 'chemic':17 'creat':6 'develop':19 'fritz':1 'haber':2,8 'manufactur':11 'process':9 'weapon':18 'wwi':21

Karl Marx in 1847 while writing The Communist Manifesto

'1847':4 'communist':8 'karl':1 'manifesto':9 'marx':2 'write':6

Genghis Khan in 1206, before his conquests in Asia

'1206':4 'asia':9 'conquest':7 'genghi':1 'khan':2

Jimmy Carter, on September 30th 2023 (one day before turning into a centenarian)

'2023':6 '30th':5 'carter':2 'centenarian':13 'day':8 'jimmi':1 'one':7 'septemb':4 'turn':10

Leo Szilard in 1933, as he has the idea of the nuclear chain reaction

'1933':4 'chain':13 'idea':9 'leo':1 'nuclear':12 'reaction':14 'szilard':2

Neil Armstrong, just as he steps foot on the moon in 1969

'1969':12 'armstrong':2 'foot':7 'moon':10 'neil':1 'step':6

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Fritz Haber in 1894 before he creates the Haber process to manufacture ammonia, instead of Leo Szilard as he had the idea of the nuclear chain reaction in 1933?

'1894':11 '1933':36 'ammonia':20 'chain':33 'creat':14 'fritz':8 'haber':9,16 'idea':29 'instead':21 'leo':23 'manufactur':19 'nuclear':32 'poll':1 'process':17 'reaction':34 'run':6 'szilard':24 'time':4 'trolley':5

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Osama Bin Laden in 1971 instead of Mitochondrial Eve just before she has her first child?

'1971':12 'bin':9 'child':23 'eve':16 'first':22 'instead':13 'laden':10 'mitochondri':15 'osama':8 'poll':1 'run':6 'time':4 'trolley':5

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Muhammad in 613, right before he began preaching instead of instead of Martin Luther right before he writes his 95 Thesis?

'613':10 '95':27 'began':14 'instead':16,18 'luther':21 'martin':20 'muhammad':8 'poll':1 'preach':15 'right':11,22 'run':6 'thesi':28 'time':4 'trolley':5 'write':25

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over JRR Tolkien in 1930 instead of Pope Innocent III right before calling the 4th Crusade?

'1930':11 '4th':21 'call':19 'crusad':22 'iii':16 'innoc':15 'instead':12 'jrr':8 'poll':1 'pope':14 'right':17 'run':6 'time':4 'tolkien':9 'trolley':5

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over John Wilkes Booth in 1865 instead of Alan Turing in 1936?

'1865':12 '1936':18 'alan':15 'booth':10 'instead':13 'john':8 'poll':1 'run':6 'time':4 'trolley':5 'ture':16 'wilk':9

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Vasily Arkhipov onboard Soviety B-29 submarine before refusing to authorize the launch of nucealear missiles in 1962 instead of Tom Brady right after the tuck call rule?

'-29':13 '1962':25 'arkhipov':9 'author':18 'b':12 'bradi':29 'call':34 'instead':26 'launch':20 'missil':23 'nucealear':22 'onboard':10 'poll':1 'refus':16 'right':30 'rule':35 'run':6 'sovieti':11 'submarin':14 'time':4 'tom':28 'trolley':5 'tuck':33 'vasili':8

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Franz Ferdinand, the day before he was killed instead of Mary, the mother of Jesus right before her 13th birthday?

'13th':26 'birthday':27 'day':11 'ferdinand':9 'franz':8 'instead':16 'jesus':22 'kill':15 'mari':18 'mother':20 'poll':1 'right':23 'run':6 'time':4 'trolley':5

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Rosa Parks in 1955 instead of Steve Jobs in 1976?

'1955':11 '1976':17 'instead':12 'job':15 'park':9 'poll':1 'rosa':8 'run':6 'steve':14 'time':4 'trolley':5

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019 instead of George W. Bush in 2001?

'2001':18 '2019':11 'bush':16 'georg':14 'instead':12 'poll':1 'run':6 'time':4 'trolley':5 'volodymyr':8 'w':15 'zelenski':9

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over the first human to step foot on Mars before they do so instead of Stephen hawking at his time travelers party in 2009?

'2009':30 'first':9 'foot':13 'hawk':23 'human':10 'instead':20 'mar':15 'parti':28 'poll':1 'run':6 'step':12 'stephen':22 'time':4,26 'travel':27 'trolley':5

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Adolf Hitler during the Berlin Olympics in 1936 instead of Jim Jones, three hours before he kills Congressman Leo Ryan and instructs his cult to drink poisoned Flavor Aid?

'1936':15 'adolf':8 'aid':36 'berlin':12 'congressman':25 'cult':31 'drink':33 'flavor':35 'hitler':9 'hour':21 'instead':16 'instruct':29 'jim':18 'jone':19 'kill':24 'leo':26 'olymp':13 'poison':34 'poll':1 'run':6 'ryan':27 'three':20 'time':4 'trolley':5

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Yoko Ono, one hour before she meets John Lennon instead of Vladimir Putin in 1999?

'1999':22 'hour':11 'instead':17 'john':15 'lennon':16 'meet':14 'one':10 'ono':9 'poll':1 'putin':20 'run':6 'time':4 'trolley':5 'vladimir':19 'yoko':8

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Neil Armstrong, just as he steps foot on the moon in 1969 instead of the operators of the Time Traveling Trolley before they board the vehicle, creating a time paradox?

'1969':19 'armstrong':9 'board':31 'creat':34 'foot':14 'instead':20 'moon':17 'neil':8 'oper':23 'paradox':37 'poll':1 'run':6 'step':13 'time':4,26,36 'travel':27 'trolley':5,28 'vehicl':33

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Gavrilo Princip as he is about to kill Ferdinand d'Este instead of Stanislav Petrov, Soviet nuclear early warning officer in 1983?

'1983':29 'd':17 'earli':25 'est':18 'ferdinand':16 'gavrilo':8 'instead':19 'kill':15 'nuclear':24 'offic':27 'petrov':22 'poll':1 'princip':9 'run':6 'soviet':23 'stanislav':21 'time':4 'trolley':5 'warn':26

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Henrietta Lacks in 1951 instead of Kim Jong Un in 2000?

'1951':11 '2000':18 'henrietta':8 'instead':12 'jong':15 'kim':14 'lack':9 'poll':1 'run':6 'time':4 'trolley':5 'un':16

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Genghis Khan in 1206, before his conquests in Asia instead of Joseph Stalin on 20th January 1924, the day before Lenin died?

'1206':11 '1924':24 '20th':22 'asia':16 'conquest':14 'day':26 'die':29 'genghi':8 'instead':17 'januari':23 'joseph':19 'khan':9 'lenin':28 'poll':1 'run':6 'stalin':20 'time':4 'trolley':5

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Elon Musk, immediately before his purchase of Twitter instead of Sam Altman, right before he joined OpenAI?

'altman':19 'elon':8 'immedi':10 'instead':16 'join':23 'musk':9 'openai':24 'poll':1 'purchas':13 'right':20 'run':6 'sam':18 'time':4 'trolley':5 'twitter':15

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Karl Marx in 1847 while writing The Communist Manifesto instead of Jimmy Carter, on September 30th 2023 (one day before turning into a centenarian)?

'1847':11 '2023':24 '30th':23 'carter':20 'centenarian':31 'communist':15 'day':26 'instead':17 'jimmi':19 'karl':8 'manifesto':16 'marx':9 'one':25 'poll':1 'run':6 'septemb':22 'time':4 'trolley':5 'turn':28 'write':13

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Xi Jinping, during his visit at the White House (Obama/Biden), February 2012 instead of Mao Zedong right before the long march?

'2012':19 'februari':18 'hous':16 'instead':20 'jinp':9 'long':27 'mao':22 'march':28 'obama/biden':17 'poll':1 'right':24 'run':6 'time':4 'trolley':5 'visit':12 'white':15 'xi':8 'zedong':23

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Donald Trump, right before he starts his 2016 campaign instead of Ronald Reagan, as he lays his hand on the Bible to take the oath of office in 1981?

'1981':36 '2016':15 'bibl':28 'campaign':16 'donald':8 'hand':25 'instead':17 'lay':23 'oath':32 'offic':34 'poll':1 'reagan':20 'right':10 'ronald':19 'run':6 'start':13 'take':30 'time':4 'trolley':5 'trump':9

_Poll: Should the Time Trolley run over Lee Harvey Oswald, but it's just *after* he shot Kennedy instead of Christopher Columbus in 1492, just before he sails the ocean blue?

'1492':24 'blue':31 'christoph':21 'columbus':22 'harvey':9 'instead':19 'kennedi':18 'lee':8 'ocean':30 'oswald':10 'poll':1 'run':6 'sail':28 'shot':17 'time':4 'trolley':5

If someone is run over, their name resolves Yes. If they aren't run over, their name resolves No.

Each name has been randomly paired with another name, and presented as a poll. These polls will resolve N/A, and all mana you spend on them will be returned to you. But at market close, I will tally everyone who holds Yes and No shares in each poll and use this to determine who is run over by the Time Trolley. The individual names then resolve Yes or No accordingly.

You are the conductors of the Time Trolley. There's been a terrible accident, and you've been marooned in a distant timeline. 

The only way home is via a branching series of Time Tracks through nearby timelines. Unfortunately, each Time Track necessarily runs right through a historically significant figure at a historically significant time. If the trolley runs over someone, they suddenly die of an aneurysm and that timeline has to deal with the consequences.

As the Time Trolley conductors, you must choose which tracks to take and therefore which historical figures will survive in those timelines.

In this market, you can submit significant historical figures and the moment they will die if run over. Limit of 4 submissions per user.

When I think we have enough options, I will randomize a time of day to close this market to submissions and then randomly pair up the submissions. I will then create a poll for each pairing, asking who the trolley should hit. Exact randomization and poll format is TBD, but will be announced in advance.

I will make only small trades in this market, to show support for submissions but keep myself impartial. This is an experimental format, and I may make minor adjustments to the rules if anyone has good suggestions.

You are encouraged to argue the merits of running over each person or not in the comments, to try to win support for your bets.