How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at the end of 2026?

Question

How many US metro areas (Metropolitican Statistical Areas) in the top 50 in population (according to the 2020 census) will Waymo serve with publicly available driverless taxi rides at the end of 2026?

As of the 2020 census, the 50th largest MSA was Hartford, CT with a population of 1.15 million.

Rides must be paid, driverless, and available to the general public (i.e. not just employees or any sort of trusted tester program. But if there is a waitlist to manage demand that still counts).

As of mid-2024, Waymo currently serves the SF, LA, and Phoenix metro areas and is planning to expand to Austin. Note that there are two metro areas in the Bay Area: SF and San Jose.

See similar question (slightly different criteria) for 2025:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshYou/how-many-metro-areas-will-waymo-ser)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 9 to 16, followed by 17 to 24 and <=8 are most likely. See the market for live updates (22 traders, as of Apr 11, 2026).