Will there be a Moon base by 2040?

Question

Must be left on the moon.

Must have sleeping quarters.

Must have been slept in by 2040.

Does not need to be permanently inhabited.

Inspired by @/StanPinsent/will-there-be-a-moon-base-by-2030

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 67% chance (42 traders, as of Oct 31, 2025).