Will an alien invasion wipe out humanity by 2100?

Question

Will extraterrestrials destroy the human race? Only counts alien species that originate from another planet, not life whose ancestry can be ultimately traced back to Earth.

Resolves NO if humanity is still around by then. Otherwise, the resolution is up to the aliens.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (17 traders, as of Jul 15, 2026).