What percentage of their money will FTX customers get back, on average?

Question

This market resolves to the percentage of their money that FTX customers get back after the bankruptcy case has completed.

If different groups of customers (e.g. FTX US vs. FTX International) receive different percentage payouts, this question will resolve to a weighted average of all groups, or if that's difficult to work out, the payout percentage applicable to the largest group of customers (measured preferably in dollars, but that number is not easily available, by headcount), preferably as indicated by credible news sources.

(I reserve the right to make edits to this market to improve its clarity, and to resolve it in whichever way seems most reasonable to me. I currently do not intend to trade on this market except at the very beginning.)

Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-12-22 6:31 pm

Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (23 traders, as of Aug 12, 2026).