Will Nintendo deliver the Ocarina of Time remake in 2026 as promised?

Question

Nintendo has missed deadlines before. In 2021, they announced a 2022 release window for Tears of the Kingdom, which was later pushed to May 2023.

Nintendo has promised 2026 for the release, and the turnaround to that deadline is shorter than for TotK.  Will they hit it?

Resolves based on an average American consumer gaining access to the full game, less any bonus content/DLC/etc.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 97% chance (8 traders, as of Sep 11, 2026).