 on "Will releasing the weights of large language models grant widespread access to pandemic agents?" (

) one of the main questions was whether open source models were uniquely dangerous: could hackathon participants have made similar progress towards learning how to obtain infectious 1918 flu even without access to an LLM by using traditional sources: Google, YouTube, reading papers, etc?

Resolves YES if the authors run a similar no-LLM experiment and find that yes-LLM hackathon participants are far more likely to find key information than no-LLM partipants.

Resolves NO if the authors run a similar no-LLM experiment and find that yes-LLM hackathon participants are 

 far more likely to find key information than no-LLM partipants.

Resolves N/A if the authors don't run a simliar no-LLM experiment.

Disclosure: I work for SecureBio, as do most of the authors. I work on a different project within the organization and don't have any inside information on whether they intend to run a no-LLM experiment or how it might look if they decide to run one.

If at close (currently 2024-06-01) the authors say they're working on a no-LLM version but haven't finished yet, I'll extend until they do, to a maximum of one year from the opening date (2024-10-31).