If humanity gets wiped out by 2033, will it be because of AI?

Question

Resolves yes if humanity gets wiped out due to AI before 2033. Resolves no if humanity is wiped out by some other cause before 2033. Wiped out is defined as <1000 humans on planet earth. Resolves N/A if humanity isn't wiped out before 2033.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 73% chance (15 traders, as of Jan 18, 2026).