Will the next Non Republican president abolish ICE?

Question

This market resolves YES if the next president to take office who is not a Republican formally abolishes the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency through legislation or executive action. Abolition means the agency ceases to exist as a distinct entity, with its functions either eliminated or transferred to other agencies. The market resolves NO if such a president takes office and does not abolish ICE during their term(s).

A Term is for the person who wins and their successor if they leave the office early. For example if someone is elected in 2028 and leaves in 2030 but ice is abolished in 2031, it would still resolve yes, as that person who succeeded them is considered as finishing the term (jan 2029-jan 2033) for this Market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 26% chance (35 traders, as of Aug 12, 2026).