Will Stephen Miller leave the White House before 2 Jan 2027?

Question

Resolves yes if Stephen Miller is out as White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and United States Homeland Security Advisor before 2 Jan 2027.

Must be out of both these roles, and not get a new White House role, unless he leaves that also before 2 Jan 2027 11.59am EST.

Must have officially left, announcement of leaving isn’t enough.

If he leaves his roles, will resolve yes. If he comes back a few months later, doesn’t count.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (24 traders, as of Oct 5, 2026).