Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO?

Question

Eg. If space x IPOs on June 18 2026 and closes the day with a 2T market cap, and on June 18 2027 the market cap is $3T, the market resolves yes, If it was $1.5T, it would resolve no.

The starting value will be market cap at market close on ipo day.

If the day a year later falls on a day with no trading (eg. Weekend) resolves to the listed market cap from the last day of tradings market cap

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (21 traders, as of Oct 21, 2026).