Will Oliver Larkin win the Florida 23rd Democratic Primary?

Question

Resolves YES if Oliver Larkin wins the Floridas 23rd district Democratic primary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Florida#District_23

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (6 traders, as of May 15, 2026).