Will Andy Burnham be an MP at the same time Keir Starmer is PM?

Question

Resolves YES if Keir Starmer has continually served as prime minister until Andy Burnham becomes MP. Resolves no when Keir starmer is no longer PM, when he has resigned to the king. Announcement of resignation won’t count.  Even if he came back at a later date as pm, won’t count. Once he’s gone, he’s gone.

Andy Burnham must be sworn in as an MP,  winning an election won’t count until he’s sworn in.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 55% chance (12 traders, as of May 21, 2026).