Who will be the next Secretary of Homeland Security?

Question

Resolves yes to the next secretary of homeland security.

Resolves OTHER if no one is confirmed,  as KRISTI noem has left the role

Update 2026-03-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolves based on who is confirmed by the Senate as Secretary of Homeland Security, or appointed by recess appointment.

Update 2026-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no one is confirmed by 20 Jan 2029, the market resolves to Other. The market will continue past the end of the Trump administration (if applicable) until Jan 2029, covering any new administration's confirmations as well.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Markwayne Mullin, followed by Other and Tom Homan are most likely. See the market for live updates (42 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).