OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?

Question

Only Market cap counted is the one on ipo day at market close, on yahoo finance.  Private valuations don’t count.

Resolves YES if OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap at market close of $1trillion or more.  United States dollar.

Completes an IPO means listing stocks on a public stock exchange. Announcement of a date or filings does not count.

The Market cap is based on the market cap at market close on IPO day, according to yahoo finance.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (31 traders, as of Oct 1, 2026).