Massie Vs Gallrein Republican primary margin of victory?

Question

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky#District_4

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the final official results of the Republican primary election for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District as certified by the Kentucky Secretary of State.

The margin of victory is calculated as the percentage point difference between the vote totals of the two candidates

The official results can be found at the Kentucky Secretary of State’s election results page: https://elect.ky.gov/results/Pages/default.aspx. If the election is canceled or the specified candidates do not appear on the ballot, the market will resolve N/A.

Background

Thomas Massie is the incumbent U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 4th Congressional District. Eric Deters (sometimes identified in primary contexts alongside or instead of other challengers depending on filings) or other potential challengers may appear on the ballot; this market specifically covers the margin between Thomas Massie and Michael Gallrein. Traders should verify the final candidate list via the Kentucky Secretary of State’s candidate filing page.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Massie 3.50% to 6.9999%, followed by Massie 0.00% to 3.4999% and Gallrein 3.50% to 6.9999% are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of May 2, 2026).