Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by…?

Question

Resolves same as Polymarket:

https://polymarket.com/event/iran-x-israelus-conflict-ends-by

Please note: 14 day period must start before end date, not finish. Eg. If conflict ended on March 6 and there was a 14 day period of no conflict until March 20, March 7 and 15 would resolve yes on March 20 when the period has finished.

Full rules: This is for your convenience. Rules may be clarified further, check Polymarket if so.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.

A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.

This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.

Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.

Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, December 31, followed by June 30 and May 15 are most likely. See the market for live updates (28 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).