If confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?

Question

Resolves n/a if Markwayne does not become dhs secretary (Secretary of homeland security) in 2026.

Resolves yes if Markwayne Mullin serves continuously as dhs secretary until 19 Jan 2029.

Resolves NO if Markwayne Mullin is out as dhs secretary before 19 Jan 2029.

This market will resolve on announcement of Markwayne leaving the role, if he does leave.

If role is renamed and he stays, will be on that role. Eg. Department of Defense> department of war sort of thing.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (10 traders, as of Mar 20, 2026).