How many of these democrats will be elected senators in November?

Question

Penny Flanagan (Minnesota)

James Talarico(Texas)

Abdul El Sayed(Michigan)

Julia Stratton(Illinois)

Graham Platner (Maine)

Sherrod Brown (Ohio)

Mary Peltola(Alaska)

Roy Cooper(North Carolina)

Resolves on major media reporting and official results.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 3 or more, followed by 4 or more and 5 or more are most likely. See the market for live updates (15 traders, as of Aug 16, 2026).