Did Robert Fisher survive past April 2001?

Question

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_William_Fisher

Resolves YES if conclusive evidence is released that shows he was alive on May 1 2001 or later

Resolves NO if conclusive evidence is released that shows he died between April 9 and April 30.

Will not resolve until one of these conditions is met

There has been speculation that he committed suicide or died, probably somewhere in the wilderness where Mary's (wife) car was discovered, and that the body was never found. Others disagree and maintain that he most likely survived. It is thought that he may have started a new life under an assumed identity

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 27% chance (3 traders, as of Mar 11, 2026).