Will the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) collapse before the end of 2050?

Question

A new paper claims:

We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 35% chance (16 traders, as of Mar 17, 2026).