SPOI | Will the Destiny orbiter market increase in value? (Nov. 21 to Dec. 5)

Question

Steven and the Parasocials' Orbiter Index

Welcome the second week of the recurring SPOI. The first market is now closed and will be resolved next week. This new instance is now open for trading, same rules as before with a minor tweak; the market will be open until expiry. As a reminder, this is an index that attempts to gauge market sentiment on the value of orbiters in general to Destiny's stream. At the beginning of trade open, the values of the top 5 orbiter stocks (outlined in each post) will be recorded. Traders will bet on whether or not this average will increase or decrease after 2 weeks. Each SPOI option will resolve after two weeks; a yes meaning there was an increase on average, no meaning there was a decrease. Good luck!

Orbiter record for 5:00PM PST 11/21/2022:

Aba - 76%

Dan - 80%

Erudite - 80%

Brittany Simon - 71% (new)

LTG - 66% (new)

Average:  74.6%

This is the value I will compare with at the end of two weeks. If you believe that the average will be greater than 74.6% on 12/5/22 vote yes, if less, vote no. In the event of a tie the first price movement after 5:00 PM on resolution day decides the outcome.

This market will resolve on Dec. 5th, 2022 5:00 PST

PS The reason I closed the previous market early was to make it more interesting, having to forecast a week into the future brings a lot more variablity than having to forecast a few days into the future. However, it unfortunately kills engagment and rankings when people search, so letting people trade up to the resolution date is the better option.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Dec 6, 2022 by Manifold Markets prediction market.