Will the described dynamic mostly stop happening on Manifold by the end of 2024?

Question

Here's the general outline of something that has been happening frequently on Manifold lately.

Someone makes an obviously, easily-verifiably false claim.

I bluntly point out that it's false and how easily any reasonable observer would have known this, provide the evidence, and block them for acting in bad faith.

They don't provide any justification for their original claim or explain why they made it, and proceed to ignore the object-level issue entirely, dodging any further questions about it. Instead, they start making vague accusations about how this proves I must be biased, how I'm rude and unpleasant to interact with, how I block lots of people (never explaining why this is bad), and generally try to damage my reputation.

Their strategy often works, since they're willing to put more time into it than I am, have better social skills than I do, and are more willing to suck up to the community members who have social power around here.

It's getting annoying, and I'm open to suggestions on how to end this dynamic.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 31% chance (5 traders, as of Dec 4, 2024).