Will there be a lunar base by the end of 2029?

Question

A lunar base means any infrastructure on the moon designed to remain there permanently and support human habitation. In order for this question to resolve positivly, such a base must be complete enough that humans could live there for a few weeks, but they don't actually have to be living there.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (69 traders, as of Oct 11, 2026).