Will manifold.love ever be a billion dollar business?

Question

From the discord:

[image]Resolves YES when it happens. Resolves NO when manifold.love is shut

down.

Adjusted for inflation, 2023 dollars.

If there's disagreement over whether it's worth a billion dollars, we'll go by its 409A valuation, or a best estimate of what such a valuation would be if it were to occur.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (25 traders, as of Jan 29, 2026).