Will chess be solved by 2040?

Question

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game (Ultra-weak)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess

(No 50-move rule, repetition is a draw.)

To bet on what the outcome will be, see:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/what-is-the-outcome-of-a-traditiona-4b76f1dfad80)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 16% chance (254 traders, as of Aug 11, 2026).