Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032?

Question

This question resolves to Yes if any Democratic state (defined as a state that voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the most recent election) legalizes school shootings by the end of 2032. It resolves to NO if no such state does.

If a state legalizes school shootings for a certain demographic group, this question will resolve to PROB according to that group's share of victims in school shootings in that state.

Legalization will be defined as a ban on, removal of, or massive reduction in criminal penalties for perpetuating such a shooting.

This market is a mostly-duplicate of this one, since it closed too early and the mods were debating using that as an excuse to N/A it, because they found it to be a distasteful question. I object to this approach to moderation.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (8 traders, as of May 22, 2024).