Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Question

An attempt to recreate Levi's market subject to less personal judgement and bias.

This market resolves based on the "popular science" consensus at the beginning of 2060. (i.e. the sort of thing reported in Wikipedia and posted on Twitter by the loudest scientists.) In the United States, or whatever culture is most similar to it if it's stopped existing by then.

If I were to resolve this at the time of market creation, it would resolve to NO, since Wikipedia stated at that time:

Today, the scientific consensus is that genetics does not explain differences in IQ test performance between groups, and that observed differences are environmental in origin.

and other popular science resources tended to agree.

This is about the causes of the IQ gap that exists in 2023, not any IQ gap that may exist in 2060.

Resolves to N/A if the consensus at market close is that average IQ of white and black people in 2023 was the same to within 1%.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 53% chance (94 traders, as of Apr 26, 2026).