In December of 2026, will Wikipedia ascribe higher credence to the lab leak theory than it did in December of 2023?

Question

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lab_leak_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Origin_of_COVID-19

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2

As of December 2023, these articles are relatively consistent in describing the lab leak theory as misinformation and low probability, but plausible according to a minority of scientists, and not yet definitely disproven.

In December of 2026, I'll ask Manifold users to compare the 2023 versions of those articles to the 2026 versions, and vote on whether it seems Wikipedia treats the theory as significantly more credible. Regular users get 1 vote each, moderators get 5. Suspected bot/spam accounts are ignored.

If at least 50% of the vote believes Wikipedia has started treating it as significantly more credible, this resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

Note that both "Wikipedia treats it as less credible, labeling it as completely debunked" and "no significant change" resolve to NO. This only resolves YES if there's an easily noticeable change in favor of lab leak. For example if Wikipedia in 2026 treats the subject as 50/50, giving the lab leak theory equal credence to natural origin and using neutral language to describe both, this will resolve YES.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (53 traders, as of Dec 17, 2025).