Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?

Question

The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.

Resolves based on my own judgement of what counts as "a serious attempt". I won't bet.

(The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count under this criterion. Seeking a third term, even if the election itself was fair, would also count.)

Resolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.

Note: This is about Trump specifically, not Republicans in general. A coup to put JD Vance in power would not count unless he's there to be a puppet of Trump.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (84 traders, as of Aug 19, 2026).