If Manifold does not give me a $100,000 advertising budget, will Manifold's MAUs double within a year?

Question

Specifcally, the comparison is MAU's at the time of the grant compared to MAU's exactly 1 year later.

I made the title about me because I want this to reflect "people with opinions similar to mine about the correct growth strategy for Manifold to take". In practice I'd be asking for advice from several other users and it'd be more of a grassroots activity than a solo one. If Manifold provides such a grant to a group of users that includes me, I'll count that as satisfying the condition.

See also:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/if-manifold-gives-me-a-100000-adver)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 37% chance (4 traders, as of Dec 1, 2024).