If a third party starts allowing Manifold users to cash out their mana for real money, will Manifold shut it down?

Question

A few people have talked about instituting a way to exchange mana for real money, such as here:

https://manifold.markets/Nils/will-there-be-a-way-to-exchange-man

https://manifold.markets/MichaelWheatley/how-much-is-m100-worth

The condition is met if there's an easy way for users to turn their mana into USD or another real-world currency. (Not crypto.) "Easy" meaning that someone with no special technical skills can reasonably and reliably do it in under a few minutes of work per transaction.

If Manifold themselves finds a way to offer this, that doesn't count. It must be some third party.

This market resolves once either of the following is true:

Someone creates such a system. (Resolves based on whether they're made to stop within a month.)

Manifold impliments a blanket ban on such practices. (Resolves to YES.)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 93% chance (8 traders, as of Aug 12, 2025).