A comprehensive list of Annie's claims is available 

These claims are extreme, while being suspiciously light on specific accusations and heavy on emotionally-charged buzzwords. Both parties potentially have a strong incentive to misrepresent the situation, and Sam has enough power and influence that he could plausibly hush up something like this. It would be nice to get to the bottom of what actually happened.

This market resolves to YES or NO based on a weighted poll among the Manifold community as follows: regular users get 1 vote, moderators get 3 votes, and I get votes equal to 20% of the votes cast by everyone else. Any accounts I strongly suspect of being duplicates, non-human, or brigading will be disqualified. (e.g. if someone posts on Reddit encouraging people to sign up for the sole purpose of voting in the poll, those votes will be ignored.)

Voters are free to use whatever definition of "abuse" they wish, with the following common-sense restrictions:

The vote will occur shortly after market close, in early 2026. I may delay market close if there is broad agreement that significant information is likely to emerge soon after that point, such as a court case that's going to trial in mid 2026. Similarly, I may hold it early if overwhelming evidence emerges in one direction or another, such as Sam admitting to it.

Voters will be encouraged to take into account all information that has come to light at any time before the vote is held, and to vote based on their best guess as to what actually occurred, even if they're not certain.

I reserve the right to N/A this market if either Sam or Annie asks me to, out of respect for their privacy.