There's a lot of speculation about the technological state of Russia's nuclear arsenal, and about what, if any, interception capabilities the USA possesses.

This market will not resolve until the beginning of 2024. If no missiles are launched, it resolves to N/A. If at least one is launched, it resolves to the percentage of warheads that successfully detonate.

Some examples of things that would constitute a successful detonation:

 how many warheads were launched, and different sources may disagree on the details. In that case, I will resolve this market to a reasonable estimate based on the information available. If necessary, I may delay resolution by up to 6 months into 2024 in order to wait for more information to be released. I plan to confer extensively with any traders in this market before resolving it, in order to make sure the final percentage is as accurate as possible.